Variations in seasonality in spa centres of Serbia

Sanja Pavlović, Nikola Todorović, Jelena Bolović, Marina Vesić


Seasonality of tourist demand imposes a number of issues related to the destination’s carrying capacity and business activities of the individual service providers in tourism. As one indicator of seasonal fluctuation of tourist demand, the Gini index is identified in order to establish monthly concentration of tourists. In this study, the Gini index was calculated for four spa tourism destinations in Serbia (VrnjaÄka Banja, Sokobanja, NiÅ¡ka Banja and Prolom Banja), in order to establish variability in the seasonality. The research took into consideration the period 2010–2019. Research results indicate that NiÅ¡ka Banja Spa has the lowest values of the Gini index, while VrnjaÄka Banja Spa and Sokobanja Spa have the highest values, whereby no values are higher that .45 (mostly between .30 and .39). Given that the theoretically lowest value of the Gini index is 0 (smallest seasonal concentration) and the highest is 1 (biggest concentration), the selected spas still do not have particularly high degree of seasonal concentration of tourists. Possibilities for reduction of tourist demand seasonality are pointed out, given its impact on tourism planning and its economic effects.

Key words: tourist demand, seasonality, Gini index, spa, Serbia

© 2021 Serbian Geographical Society, Belgrade, Serbia.

This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Serbia


Full Text:



Allock, J.B. (1994). Seasonality. In Witt, S.F. & Moutinho, L. (eds.), Tourism Marketing and Management Handbook (86–92). New York: Prentice Hall.

Bar-On, R. R. V. (1975). Seasonality in tourism: A guide to the analysis of seasonality and trends for policy making. London: Economics Intelligence Unit.

Baum, T. (1993). Human resource concerns in European tourism: strategic responses and the EC. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 12(1), 77–88.

Baum, T. & Hagen, L. (1999). Responses to Seasonality: The Experiences of Peripheral Destinations. International Journal of Tourism Research, 1, 299−312.

Baum, T. & Lundtorp, S. (2001). Seasonality in tourism: an introduction. In Baum, T. & Lundtorp, S. (eds.), Seasonality in Tourism (1–4). New York: Pergamon.

Butler, R. (2001). Seasonality in tourism: Issues and implications. In Baum, T. & Lundtrop, S. (eds.), Seasonality in tourism (5−21). New York: Pergamon.

Cannas, R. (2012.) An Overview of Tourism Seasonality: Key Cocepts and Policies. Almatourism – Journal of Tourism, Culture and Territorial Development, 3(5), 40−58.

Conceição, P. & Ferreira, P. M. (2000). The Young Person's Guide to the Theil Index: Suggesting Intuitive Interpretations and Exploring Analytical Applications. UTIP Working Paper Number 14. Available at SSRN: or

Cuccia, T. & Rizzo, I. (2011). Tourism seasonality in cultural destinations: Empirical evidence from Sicily. Tourism Management, 32, 589−595.

Denda, S. & Stojanović, J. (2017). Pozicioniranost Sokobanje na turistiÄkom tržiÅ¡tu Srbije. Poslovna Ekonomija, 20(1), 253−271. DOI: 10.5937/poseko11-13733.

Duro, J.A. (2016). Seasonality of hotel demand in the main Spanish provinces: Measurements and decomposition exercises. Tourism Management, 52, 52−63.

Duro, J.A. & Turrion-Prats, J. (2019). Tourism seasonality worldwide. Tourism Management Perspectives, 31, 38–53.

Duval, D.T. (2004). When Buying into the Business, We Knew it was Seasonal’: Perceptions of Seasonality in Central Otago, New Zealand. International Journal of Tourism Research, 6, 325–337. DOI: 10.1002/jtr.492.

Fernandez-Morales, A. (2003). Decomposing seasonal concentration. Annals of Tourism Research, 30, 942−956.

Fernandez-Morales, A., Cisneros-Martínez, J. D. & McCabe, S. (2016). Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implications. Tourism Management, 56, 172−190.

Fernandez-Morales, A. & Mayorga-Toledano, M. C. (2008). Seasonal concentration of the hotel demand in Costa del Sol: A decomposition by nationalities. Tourism Management, 9, 940−949.

Fernandez-Morales, A. (2017). Tourism mobility in time and seasonality in tourism. Revista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica, 71(2), 35−52.

Ferrante, M., Lo Magno, G.L. & De Cantis, S. (2018). Measuring tourism seasonality across European countries. Tourism Management, 68, 220-235.

Hartmann, R. (1986). Tourism, seasonality and social change. Leisure Studies, 5(1), 25–33.

Hylleberg, S. (1992). General introduction. In Hylleberg S. (ed.), Modelling Seasonality (3–14). Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Koenig-Lewis, N. & Bischoff, E. (2005). Seasonality Research: The State of the Art. International Journal of Tourism Research, 7, 201–219. DOI: 10.1002/jtr.531.

Kožić, I. (2013). Kolika je sezonalnost turizma u Hrvatskoj? Ekonomski vjesnik, 26(2), 470−480.

Kožić, I., Krešić, D. & Boranić-Živoder, S. (2013). Analiza sezonalnosti turizma u Hrvatskoj primjenom metode Gini koeficijenta. Ekonomski pregled, 64 (2), 159−182.

Lau, P.L., Koo, T. T.R. & Dwyer, L. (2017). Metrics to measure the geographic characteristics of tourism markets: An integrated approach based on Gini index decomposition. Tourism Management, 59, 171−181.

Lim, C. & McAleer, M. (2001). Forecasting tourist arrivals. Annals of Tourism Research, 28(4), 965–977.

Liu, Y., Li, Y. & Parkpian, P. (2018). Inbound tourism in Thailand: Market form and scale differentiation in ASEAN source countries. Tourism Management, 64, 22−36.

Lundtorp, S., Rassing, C.R. & Wanhill, S.RC. (1999). The off-season is "no season": the case of the Danish island of Bornholm. Tourism Economics, 5(1), 49–68.

LuÄić, M., Dimitrovski, D. & Todorović, A. (2016). Uticaj atributa u banjskom turizmu na konkurentnost, primer VrnjaÄke Banje. Zbornik radova Geografskog fakulteta, 64, 419–452. DOI: 10.5937/zrgfub1664419L

Marić, I., Pucar, M. & Bakić, O. (2005). Obnova VrnjaÄke Banje i održivi razvoj turizma. Arhitektura i urbanizam, 16–17, 21–30.

Marjanović, M. (2017). Possibilities for Development of Recreational Tourism in Sokobanja.

Researches Reviews of the Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, 46(1), 34–43.

Martin, J.M., Salinas, J. A., Rodriguez, J.A. & del Sol Ostos Rey, M. (2020). Analysis of Tourism Seasonality as a Factor Limiting the Sustainable Development of Rural Areas. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 44(1), 45–75. DOI:

Marton, G., Hinek, M., Kiss, R. & Csapo, J. (2019). Measuring seasonality at the major spa towns of Hungary. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin, 68(4), 391–403.

Milićević, S., Podovac, M. & ÄorÄ‘ević, N. (2020). Local Residents' Attitudes Towards Tourism Events: A Case Study of the Carnival of Vrnjci, Serbia. Ekonomika, 66(2), 75−91.

Osberg, L. (2017). On the Limitations of Some Current Usages of the Gini Index. The Review of Income and Wealth, 63(3), 574–584. DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12256

Petrevska, B. (2013). A simple test for the presence of seasonality in tourism in Macedonia. Conference Proceedings of Apstracts from the 1st International Conference "Regional Economic Cooperation in the process of Globalization", 6-7 Dec 2013, 120, Faculty of Economics - State University of Tetova, Tetovo, Macedonia.

Perić, G. & Mandarić, M. (2020). Challenges in Tourist Destination Brending in Serbia: the Case of Prolom Banja. Ekonomika preduzeća, 68(5−6), 442−456. DOI: 10.5937/EKOPRE2006442P

Petrović, V., Lakićević, M. & Durkalić, D. (2019). The Role of a Sports Event in Creating a Tourist Offer in VrnjaÄka Banja. Megatrend Review, 16(1), 95−110.

Podovac, M. & Jovanović TonÄev, M. (2015). Istraživanje stavova turista o kvalitetu ponude turistiÄke destinacije. Ekonomski pregledi, 17(2), 65–80.

Rossello Nadal, J., Riera Font, A. & Sanso Rossello, A. (2004). The economic determinants of seasonal patterns. Annals of Tourism Research, 31(3), 697–711.

Rossello, J. & Sanso, A. (2017). Yearly, monthly and weekly seasonality of tourism demand: A decomposition analysis. Tourism Management, 60, 379−389.

Saito, H. & Romao, J. (2018). Seasonality and regional productivity in the Spanish accommodation sector. Tourism Management, 69, 180−188.

Senbeto, D. & Hon, A. (2019). A dualistic model of tourism seasonality: Approach-Avoidance and Regulatory Focus Theories. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 43(5), 734–753. DOI: 10.1177/1096348019828446.

Stupariu, M. & Morar, C. (2018). Tourism Seasonality in the Spas of Romania. GeoJournal of Tourism and Geosites, 22(2), 573−584. DOI 10.30892/gtg.22225-312

Trajkov, A., Biljan, J. & Andreeski, C. (2016). Overview and characteristics of tourism seasonality in Ohrid. Economic Themes, 54(4), 485−498.

Turrión-Prats, J. & Duro, J.A. (2019). Seasonality determinants for the main markets in Spain. International Journal of Tourism Research, 21, 462–477.

Yitzhaki, S. (1983). On an Extension of the Gini Inequality Index. International Economic Review, 24(3), 617–628. DOI: 10.2307/2648789


  • There are currently no refbacks.