Demographic and economic aspects of urban shrinkage in Serbia - typology and regional differentiation

Danica Djurkin, Marija Antić, Aljoša Budović

Abstract


Urban shrinkage is a process that many European countries have been facing in recent decades. It had started in highly developed regions at the time of deindustrialisation, but since the 1990s, this process has also affected Central, Eastern and South-eastern Europe, with different patterns and dynamics of urban shrinkage. The political and economic crisis in Serbia during the 1990s, as well as the transition from a centrally governed and urban-based industrialisation to a neoliberal market economy, has brought significant changes in the development of cities, which faced declining demographic and economic vitality. This paper is focused on the analysis of the intensity and dynamics of demographic and economic aspects of urban shrinkage in Serbia and on classification of cities according to the different phases of urban shrinkage. Typological classification was performed using the K-means clustering algorithm. The cluster analysis is based on the use of relevant demographic and socio-economic indicators, for the period from 2002 to 2011. After identifying cities that recorded an increase in total population and relatively stable economic development, three types of shrinking cities were determined according to the intensity of demographic and economic shrinkage - cities with low, medium and high shrinkage intensity. The analysis of the main patterns and factors that influenced the different levels of urban shrinkage enabled a better understanding of this phenomenon in Serbia. The results indicate the heterogeneity of urban space due to different levels of demographic and economic shrinkage, thus it can serve as a starting point for future research of uneven urban development in Serbia.

Key words: urban shrinkage, regional differentiation, typology, urban areas, Serbia

© 2021 Serbian Geographical Society, Belgrade, Serbia.

This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Serbia

 


Full Text:

PDF

References


Alves, D., Barreira, A. P., Guimarães, M. H. & Panagopoulos, T. (2016). Historical trajectories of currently shrinking Portuguese cities: A typology of urban shrinkage. Cities, 52, 20-29.

Anselin, L., Syabri, I. & Kho, Y. (2010). GeoDa: an introduction to spatial data analysis. In M. M. Fischer & A. Getis (Eds.), Handbook of applied spatial analysis (73-89). Springer.

Antonić, B. (2018). Housing as an activator of urban development in shrinking cities: the case of cities in Vojvodina. Doctoral dissertation. University of Belgrade – Faculty of Architecture, National Repository of Dissertations in Serbia. https://nardus.mpn.gov.rs/handle/123456789/ 10342.

Antonić, B., Đukić, A. & Marić, J. (2020). Razmere opadanja gradova u Srbiji na početku trećeg milenijuma: sadašnji trendovi i pouke za budućnost. U A. Jevtić & B. Drašković (ur.), Međunarodni naučno-stručni skup – 16. Letnja škola urbanizma "Budućnost gradova i urbanizma", Prolom banja, 1-3. jul 2020 (31-40). Udruženje urbanista Srbije & Republički geodetski zavod.

Backović, V. (2005). European Cities in Postsocialist Transformation. Sociologija, 47(1), 27- 44.

Bănică, A., Istrate, M. & Muntele, I. (2017). Challenges for the resilience capacity of Romanian shrinking cities. Sustainability, 9(12), 2289.

Bartosiewicz, B., Kwiatek-Sołtys, A. & Kurek, S. (2019). Does the process of shrinking concern also small towns? lessons from Poland. Quaestiones Geographicae, 38(4), 91-105.

Beauregard, R. (2009). Shrinking cities in the United States in historical perspective: A research note. In K. Pallagst, J. Aber, I. Audirac, E. Cunningham-Sabot, S. Fol, C. Martinez-Fernandez, S. Moraes, H. Mulligan, J. Vargas-Hernandez, T. Weichmann, T. Wu & J. Rich (Eds.), The future of shrinking cities: problems, patterns and strategies of urban transformation in a global context, Berkeley, Маy 2009 (61-68). University of California.

Berry, B. (1976). The counterurbanization process: urban America since 1970. In B. Berry (Ed.), Urbanization and counterurbanization (17-30). Sage.

Bontje, M. & Musterd, S. (2012). Understanding Shrinkage in European Regions. Built Environment, 38(2), 152–161.

Bradbury, K. L., Downs, A. & Small, K. A. (1982). Urban decline and the future of American cities. The Brookings Institution.

Budović, A. (2020). Dynamics and factors of localisation of knowledge intensive business services in Belgrade. Doctoral dissertation, University of Belgrade – Faculty of Geography, National Repository of Dissertations in Serbia. https://nardus.mpn.gov.rs/handle/123456789/17418.

Čamprag, N. (2018). Facing shrinkage – Perspectives of urban development in Serbia. In M. Bešević, I. M. Miličić, O. Gabrić (Eds.), Proceedings of the 6th International Conference "Contemporary achievements in civil engineering", Subotica, 20 April 2018 (545-554). University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Civil Engineering Subotica.

Chen, W., Yan, C., Li, W. & Yang, Y. (2021). Coupling system-based spatiotemporal variation and influence factors analysis of city shrinkage in Henan. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 30(4), 1-14.

Djukić, A., Antonić, B. & Vujičić, T. M. (2017). Urban shrinkage in a "shrinking" Serbia – the approach to a global phenomenon in a local context. Geodetski vestnik, 61(4), 614-629.

Djukic, A., Krstic-Furundzic, A. & Kusic, A. (2011). Cities in Decline: Causes and Consequences of Shrinkage in the Industrialized City - Case Study Belgrade. "Shrinkage in Europe; Causes, Effects and Policy Strategies", Amsterdam, Netherlands, 16-17 February 2011. University of Amsterdam & the Cost Action 'Cities Regrowing Smaller'.

Đurđev, B. (1993-1994). Demografski razvoj grada i sela. Stanovništvo, 3-4(1-2), 83-94.

Đurđev, B. & Arsenović, D. (2015). Gradsko stanovništvo i mreža gradova. U V. Nikitović (ur.), Populacija Srbije početkom 21. veka - Popis stanovništva, domaćinstva i stanova 2011. u Republici Srbiji (64-70). Republički zavod za statistiku.

EU COST Action CIRES (2009-2013). Cities regrowing smaller - fostering knowledge on regeneration strategies in shrinking cities across Europe (TUD COST action TU0803). http://www.cost.eu/COST_Actions/tud/TU0803.

Feldhoff, T. (2013). Shrinking communities in Japan: Community ownership of assets as a development potential for rural Japan?. Urban Design International, 18(1), 99-109.

Fol, S. & Cunningham-Sabot, Е.C. (2010). Urban Decline and Shrinking Cities: A Critical Assessment of Approaches to Urban Degrowth. Annales de géographie, 674(4), 359-383.

Giddens, A. & Sutton, P. W. (2006). Sociology (9th Ed.). Wiley.

Grčić, M. & Ratkaj, I. (2006). Structural changes and regional differentiation of industry in Serbia during the period of transition (1988-2005). Bulletin of the Serbian Geographical Society, 86, 97-112.

Großmann, K., Haase, A., Rink, D. & Steinführer, A. (2008). Urban Shrinkage in East Central Europe? Benefits and Limits of a Cross-National Transfer of research Approaches. Poznań: Instytut Zachodni.

Guimarães, M. H., Barreira, A. P. & Panagopoulos, T. (2015). Shrinking Cities in Portugal– where and why. Revista Portuguesa de Estudos Regionais, (40), 23-41.

Haase, A., Bernt, M., Großmann, K., Mykhnenko, V. & Rink, D. (2016а). Varieties of shrinkage in European cities. European Urban and Regional Studies, 23(1), 86-102.

Haase, A., Rink, D. & Grossman, K. (2016b). Shrinking cities in post-socialist Europe: what can we learn from their analysis for theory building today?. Geografiska Annaler: Series B, Human Geography, 98(4), 305–319.

Haase, A., Rink, D., Grossmann, K., Bernt, M. & Mykhnenko, V. (2014). Conceptualizing urban shrinkage. Environment and Planning, A, 46(7), 1519-1534.

Han, J., Lee, J-G. & Kamber, M. (2009). An Overview of Clustering Methods in Geographic Data Analysis. In M. Harvey & J. Han (Eds.), Geographic Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery (149-189). Taylor & Francis.

Hartt, M. (2017). The diversity of North American shrinking cities. Urban Studies, 55 (13), 2946-2959.

He, S. Y., Lee, J., Zhou, T. & Wu, D. (2017). Shrinking cities and resource-based economy: The economic restructuring in China’s mining cities. Cities, 60, 75–83.

Heider, B. (2019). What drives urban population growth and shrinkage in postsocialist East Germany? Growth and Change, 50(4), 1460-1486.

Helmholtz – Zentrum für Umweltforschung (2012). SHRINK SMART - The Governance of Shrinkage within a European Context 2009-2012, Project No. 225193. FRG – Leipzig: Helmholtz – Zentrum für Umweltforschung, Department of Urban and Environmental Sociology.

Hoekveld, J. J. (2012). Time-space relations and the differences between shrinking regions. Built Environment, 38(2), 179-195.

Hospers, G. (2013). Coping with shrinkage in Europe’s cities and towns. Urban Design International, 18(1), 78–89.

Ilić, J. (1984). Rast i osnovne karakeristike gradskog stanovništva, Stanovništvo i domaćinstva SR Srbije prema Popisu 1981. Republički zavod za statistiku.

Jakopin, E. (2018). Regional structural imbalances of Serbia as a consequence of applied model of economic growth. Ekonomika preduzeća, 7-8, 371-385.

Kulturstiftung des Bundes (2008). Schrumpfende Städte - Shrinking Cities 2002-2008. FRG – Leipzig: Kulturstiftung des Bundes.

Ma, Z., Li, Ch. & Zhang, J. (2020). Understanding urban shrinkage from a regional perspective: Case study of Northeast China. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 146(4), 1-14.

Martinez-Fernandez, C., Audirac, I., Fol, S. & Cunningham-Sabot, E. (2012). Shrinking cities: urban challenges of globalization. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 36(2), 213-225.

Martinez-Fernandez, C., Weyman, T., Fol, S., Audirac, I., Cunningham-Sabot, E., Wiechmann, T. & Yahagi, H. (2016). Shrinking cities in Australia, Japan, Europe and the USA: From a global process to local policy responses. Progress in Planning, 105, 1-48.

Miletić, R., Miljanović, M. & Todorović, M. (2009). Industrial cities in transition: Problem areas. Bulletin of the Serbian Geographical Society, 89(3), 191-206.

Mykhnenko, V. & Turok, I. (2008). East European cities- patterns of growth and decline, 1960-2005. Inernational Planning Studies, 13(4), 311-342.

Oswalt, P. (2005). Shrinking Cities: Volume 1: International Research. Hatje Kantz Verlag.

Oswalt, P. & Rieniets, Т. (Eds.) (2006). Global context. Shrinking Cities. Hatje Kantz Verlag.

Pallagst, K. (2005). The end of the growth machine – New requirements for regional governance in an era of shrinking cities. Proceedings of the 46th Annual Conference of the Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning’s, Kansas City (MO), 27–30 October 2005. The Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning (ACSP).

Pallagst, K. (2009). Shrinking cities in the United States of America: Three cases, three planning stories. In In K. Pallagst, J. Aber, I. Audirac, E. Cunningham-Sabot, S. Fol, C. Martinez-Fernandez, S. Moraes, H. Mulligan, J. Vargas-Hernandez, T. Weichmann, T. Wu & J. Rich (Eds.), The future of shrinking cities: problems, patterns and strategies of urban transformation in a global context, Berkeley, Маy 2009 (81-89). University of California.

Republički zavod za statistiku (2003a). Aktivnost i pol, podaci po naseljima i opštinama, Popis stanovništva 2002. (knjiga 5). RZS.

Republički zavod za statistiku (2003b). Starost i pol, podaci po naseljima, Popis stanovništva 2002. (knjiga 2). RZS.

Republički zavod za statistiku (2004). Delatnost i pol aktivnog stanovništva koje obavlja zanimanje, podaci po naseljima i opštinama, Popis stanovništva 2002. (knjiga 6). RZS.

Republički zavod za statistiku (2012). Starost i pol, podaci po naseljima, Popis stanovništva, domaćinstava i stanova 2011. u Republici Srbiji (knjiga 2). RZS.

Ribant, M. & Chen, X. (2019). A typology of US shrinking cities. The Professional Geographer, 72(1), 152-164.

Rieniets, T. (2009). Shrinking Cities: Causes and Effects of Urban Population Losses in the Twentieth Century. Nature and Culture, 4(3), 231-254.

Rink, D., Couch, C., Haase, A., Krzysztofik, R., Nadolu, B. & Rumpe, P. (2014). The governance of urban shrinkage in cities of post-socialist Europe: policies, strategies and actors. Urban Research & Practice, 7(3), 258-277.

Rink, D., Haase, A., Bernt, M. & Großmann, K. (2010). Shrink Smart - The Governance of Shrinkage within a European Context. Research Brief No. 1 - Addressing urban shrinkage across Europe – Challenges and prospects. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ.

Rumpel, P. & Slach, O. (2014). Shrinking cities in Central Europe. In T. Herrschel, P. Dostál, P. Raška & J. Koutský (Eds.), Transitions in regional science – regions in transitions: Regional research in Central Europe (142-155). Wolters Kluwer.

Siljanoska, J. Korobar, V. & Stefanovska, J. (2012). Causes, Consequences and Challenges of Shrinkage: The Case of Small Cities in a Transition Society. Built Environment, 38(2), 244–258.

Sousa, S. (2010). Planning for shrinking cities in Portugal (Publication No. 10593229) [Doctoral dissertation, University of Oporto]. ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global.

Spasovski, M. & Šantić, D. (2012). Trendovi u razmeštaju i koncentraciji stanovništva Srbije – prvorazredni demografski izazov na početku XXI veka. U M. Grčić & M. Milinčić (Ur.), Problemi i izazovi savremene geografske nauke i nastave (57-73). Univerzitet u Beogradu – Geografski fakultet.

Spasovski, М., Šantić, D. & Radovanović, O. (2012). Historical stages in transition of natural replacement of the Serbian population. Bulletin of the Serbian Geographical Society, 92(2), 23-60.

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) (2014). Comparative overview of the number of population 1948, 1953, 1961, 1971, 1981, 2002 and 2011. 2011 Census of Population, Households and Dwellings in the Republic of Serbia (book no. 20). SORS.

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (2020). Special statistical processing of 2002 and 2011 census data. SORS.

Steinführer, A. & Haase, A. (2007). Demographic change as a future challenge for cities in East Central Europe. Geografiska Annaler: Series B, Human Geography, 89(2), 183-195.

Stevanović, R. (1994). Doprinos migracija populacionom rastu gradova Srbije u periodu 1981-1991. Stanovništvo, 32(3-4), 87-102.

Stevanović, R. (2004). Urban settlements in the republic of Serbia in population censuses from 1948 to 2002. Stanovništvo, 42(1-4), 109-126.

Stojanović, B. & Vojković, G. (2005). Urban agglomerations on main development axes as poles of demographic revitalization of Serbia. Stanovništvo, 43(1-4), 61-80.

Strayjakiewicz, T. & Jaroszewska, E. (2016). The process of shrinkage as a challenge to urban governance. Quaestiones Geographicae, 35(2), 27-37.

Stryjakiewicz, T., Ciesiolka, P. & Jaroszewska, E. (2012).Urban shrinkage and the post-socialist transformation: the case of Poland. Built Environment, 38(2), 196-213.

Szafrańska, E., Coudroy de Lille, L. & Kazimierczak, J. (2019). Urban shrinkage and housing in a post socialist city: relationship between the demographic evolution and housing development in Łódź, Poland. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 34, 441–464.

Tošić, D. & Krunić, N. (2005). Urban agglomerations in the function of regional integration of Serbia in South-Eastern Europe. Bulletin of the Serbian Geographical Society, 85(1), 137-148.

Turok, I. & Mykhnenko, V. (2007). The trajectories of European cities, 1960–2005. Cities, 24(3), 165–182.

Van den Berg, L., Drewett, R., Klaasen, L., Rossi, A. & Vijverberg, H. (1982). Urban Europe: A Study of Growth and Decline. Pergamon Press.

van de Kaa, D. (2003). Second demographic transition. In P. Demeny & G- McNicoll (Eds.), Encyclopaedia of population (555-557). McMillan Reference.

Вељковић, А., Јовановић, Р. & Тошић, Б. (1995). Градови Србије центри развоја у мрежи насеља (Посебна издања: књига 44). Географски институт "Јован Цвијић" САНУ. [Veljković, A., Jovanović, R. & Tošić, B. (1995). Gradovi Srbije centri razvoja u mreži naselja (Posebna izdanja: knjiga 44). Geografski institut "Jovan Cvijić" SANU.]

Waldron, R., O'Donoghue-Hynes, B. & Redmond, D. (2019). Emergency homeless shelter use in the Dublin region 2012–2016: Utilizing a cluster analysis of administrative data. Cities, 94, 143-152.

Wiechmann, T. & Pallagst, K. (2012). Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA: A comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 36(2), 261-280.

Wiechmann, T. & Wolff, M. (2013). Urban shrinkage in a spatial perspective–operationalization of shrinking cities in Europe 1990–2010. AESOP-ACSP 5th Joint Congress 2013: Planning for Resilient Cities and Regions, Dublin, 15-19th July 2013 (p. 932). University College Dublin, Ireland.

Wolff, M., Fol, S., Helene, R. & Cunningham-Sabot, E.C. (2017). Is planning needed? Shrinking cities in the French urban system. The Town planning review, 88(1), 131-145.

Yang, Z. & Dunford, M. (2017). City shrinkage in China: scalar processes of urban and hukou population losses. Regional Studies, 52(8), 1-12.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.