Trend analysis and prediction of temperature change in the continental, Thailand

Nutthakarn Phumkokrux


Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) is one of global warming indicator which using only Average daily minimum temperature (TMin) and Average daily maximum temperature (TMax) calculation. The study aims 1) to analyse trend of TMax, TMin and DTR over the early period of 21st century (1987 – 2020) and 2) to forecast and analyse trend of TMax, TMin and DTR over the mid and late period of 21st century (2021 – 2040 and 2041-2100) using MIROC5 (rcp85) model, cooperated with EQM Statistical downscaling method. TMax, TMin, and DTR trends all periods were investigated by Mann Kendall Trend Test and Sen’s slope, then presented in the form of spatial maps. The most TMax and TMin trends for all season and all regions tend to be increasing from year by year with the large increasing changed in Northern and Northeast region especially in Winter, except for the last period which had a large increasing in Summer. However, DTR trends were quietly fluctuated with the large decreasing changing in Eastern and Southern part, but the trends become to increase in the last period. A large DTR decreasing changing usually occurred in Winter and Rainy season.  The TMax and TMin of all periods were expanding year by year and lead the DTR decrease in the first and second period, however, a changing of TMax and TMin rate leads DTR increase for the last period to be a good signal for heat transfer performance which help the earth cooling in night time.

Key words: diurnal temperature range, climate, climate change, climate variability, climate of Thailand

© 2022 Serbian Geographical Society, Belgrade, Serbia.

This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Serbia.

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