Arima-Based Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Temperature Variability in Burkina Faso Under Climate Change Scenarios up to 2050

Ibrahim Ouedraogo

Abstract


In a world facing climate change, temperature estimates are crucial for Sahelian countries like Burkina Faso, where agricultural production is highly dependent on weather conditions. This research applies the ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model to predict monthly temperature variations between 2025 and 2050, using a time series spanning 41 years (1984–2024). The differentiated data were validated by stationarity tests (ADF), and the use of SARIMA models allowed for the capture of seasonality. The modifications performed well, with MAPE typically below 2% and RMSE frequently below 0.5°C. The results indicate a clear increase in temperatures. In January, the historical average of 24.2°C could rise to 27.0°C in 2050, representing an increase of +2.8°C. An increase of +0.7°C is predicted for February (from 27.1°C to 27.8°C). The most notable increases are expected for March and April, where average temperatures could exceed 33.5°C by 2050. Generally, a temperature increase of +2.5°C to +3°C is expected during key months, accompanied by increased heat stress during the dry season. These forecasts are consistent with Sahelian trends identified by various sources and highlight the suitability of the ARIMA model for climate forecasting. It is crucial to incorporate these forecasts into agriculture, water, and health policies to strengthen Burkina Faso's resilience to climate change.

Keywords: climate forecasting, MAPE, heat stress, Burkina Faso, climate modeling

© 2026 Serbian Geographical Society, Belgrade, Serbia.

This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Serbia.



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