Trend Analysis and Fluctuations of Air Temperature During Winter: A Case Study of the Northeast Region of Thailand

Chonnikarn Thonglamul, Nutthakarn Phumkokrux, Patiya Pattanasak

Abstract


This work aims to study and analyze the trend and fluctuations of air temperature during winter in the northeast region of Thailand using the data collected from the weather station of the Thai Meteorological Department (1987-2022). The result from the coefficient of variation data found that the variation of maximum (TMax) and mean (TMean) temperature was similar in all stations and lower than minimum temperature (TMin). Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope were used to extract the temperature trend, found that almost all stations had a warming trend. The magnitude of the increment of TMean was about 0.035 °C yr⁻¹. The high value of magnitude was found at the northern and western edge of the region as well as the center and southeast areas. The Pettitt test was used to find an abruption change period and found that the most of stations had a changing direction to warming. The summarization of this study indicated that the air temperature during winter in the northeast region of Thailand had an increasing trend which could be evidence of climate change in the area.

Keywords: Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, change-point detection, winter climate variability, long-term temperature monitoring

© 2026 Serbian Geographical Society, Belgrade, Serbia.

This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Serbia.


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