Kosovo-Metohija component of de-serbing the Balkans: A possible epilogue and its geopolitical consequences

Abstract

Throughout history, the Serbs have represented the most significant populational and spatial factor on the Balkans. Geopolitical aims of great forces and Serbian neighbours have been directed to continual decrease of that significance, by reducing and fragmentation of Serbian ethno-spatial potentials. That has been carried out multi-dimensionally in all Serbian areas, and especially in Kosovo and Metohija. After the war and the establishing of the protectorate in the year 1999, the process of systematic de-serbing of Kosovo and Metohija was continued in various ways, and accelerated. The epilogue is expected through the geopolitical act of official separation of Kosovo and Metohija from Serbia. This would happen in a similar way that was tested before (in Dayton-Paris agreement) - by "finished act" of forced territorialization and setting up the border lines. Geopolitical prognosis points to the expectation that the further operationalization of a hypothetical separation could have the following phases: further propaganda of the allegedly unavoidable independence of Kosovo and Metohija; further institutional distancing of Kosovo and Metohija from Serbia; Albanian military preparations; setting up of incidents as triggers of Albanian attacks; direct armed action of Albanians; extortion of Serbian agreement on losing Kosovo and Metohija, under the threat of hypothetical losing of larger territories.