Trends of mean annual river discharges in the Zapadna Morava river basin
Abstract
Zapadna Morava River basin covers a surface of 15850 km2, which is approximately 18% of the territory of the Republic of Serbia. In its basin, 38 active surface stations are registered. The goal of this paper is the trend analysis of the mean annual river discharges in the Zapadna Morava River basin and their noticing in a longer series of time, as well as determining their intensity. Fifty years period of time (1965 – 2014) is taken for a time series. Because there is no empirical data for mean annual discharge values for all stations for the given period, the number of the hydrological stations, which are processed in this paper, is reduced to 21. Mann-Kendall test has been used for noticing the trend, Sen test has been used for estimating the curves inclinations of the linear trend, while Pettitt’s test has been used for determining the turning point of change. Also, classification of the years by water richness has been performed in this paper in order to determine wet and dry periods. For the needs of identification of medium watery, wet and dry years, the combined method has been used on the data examples from representative stations in the basin. Based on the processed data and the obtained results, it has been established that the most rivers in the basin of the Zapadna Morava River have a slightly decreasing trend of the flow values, whereby the change of the trend is not significant. On the most rivers, the change period has begun in the early eighties of the past century. On a large number of profiles, the watery period was appearing in the beginning of eighties, while the dry season is characteristic for the period from 1990 to 1994.
Key words: trend, Zapadna Morava, Mann-Kendall test, wateriness, classification of the years by water richness
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Blain, G. (2013). The modified Mann-Kendall test: on the performance of three variance correlation approaches. Bragantia, Campinas, 72(4), 416-425.
Бурић, Д., Станојевић, Г., Луковић, Ј., Гавриловић, Љ. & Живковић, Н. (2012). Климатске промене и водност река – пример Колубаре, Бели Брод. Гласник српског географског друштва, 92(1), 123-134.
Douglas, E. M, Vogel, R. M. & Kroll, C. N. (2000). Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. Journal of Hydrology, 240(1-2), 90-105.
Дуцић, В., Николић, Ј. & Драгићевић, С. (2006). Промене параметара протицаја Дунава код хидролошке станице Оршава у периоду 1841 – 2000. Гласник Српског географског друштва, 86(1), 35-46.
Ђокић, М. (2015). Нишава – потамолошка студија. Докторска дисертација. Ниш: Департман за географију ПМФ-а, Универзитет у Нишу
Gao, P., Mu, X-M, Wang, F. & Li, R. (2011). Changes in streamflow and sediment discharge and the response to human activities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Hydrological Earth System Sciences, 1, 1-10.
Гавриловић, Љ. & Дукић, Д. (2014). Реке Србије, 2. прерађено издање. Београд: Завод за уџбенике
Gu, C., Mu, X., Zhao, G., Gao, P., Sun, W. & Yu, Q. (2016). Changes in stream flow and their relationships with climatic variations and anthropogenic activities in the Poyang lake basin, China. Water, 8(12), 564.
Hannaford, J. & Buys, G. (2012). Trends in seasonal river flow regimes in the UK, Journal of Hidrology, 475, 158-174.
Jeneiova, K., Kohnova, S. & Sabo, M. (2014). Detecting trends in the annual maximum discharges in the Vah River Basin, Slovakia, Acta Silvatica et Lignaria Hungarica, 10(2), 133-144.
Кendall, M. (1962). Rank corelation methods. New York: Hafner Publishing Company.
Kovačević-Majkić, J. & Urošev, M. (2014). Trends of mean annual and seasonal discharges of rivers in Serbia. Zbornik radova Instituta "Jovan Cvijić", 64(2), 143-160.
Liang, L. & Liu, Q. (2014). Streamflow sensitivity analysis to climate change for a large water – limited basin. Hydrology Process, 28, 1767-1774.
Meysam, S., Akhond-Ali, A-M., Adib, A. & Daneshkhah, A. (2012): Trend and change-point detection for the annual stream-flow series of the Karun River at the Ahvaz hydrometric station. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 7, 4540 – 4552.
Mustafić, S. (2012). Geografski faktori kao determinante intenziteta erozije na primeru sliva Nišave. Doktorska disertacija. Beograd: Geografski fakultet, Univerzitet u Beogradu.
Оцокољић, М. (1994). Цикличност сушних и водних периода у Србији. Посебна издања, 41. Географски институт "Јован Цвијић" САНУ
РХМЗС, Хидролошкигодишњаци (1965 – 2014). Београд
Симић, С. (2016). Водни потенцијал и хидрогеографска рејонизација Ваљевских планина. Докторска дисертација. Београд: Географски факултет, Универзитет у Београду.
Stahl, K., Hisdal, H., Hannaford, J., Tallaksen, L.M., van Lanen, H.A.J., Sauquet, E., Demuth, S., Fendekova, M. & Jodar, J. (2010).
Streamflow trends in Europe: evidence from a dataset of near – natural catchments. Hydrological and Earth System Sciences, 14, 2367-2382.
Stojković, M., Plavšić, M. & Proharska, S. (2014). Dugoročne promene godišnjih i sezonskih proticaja: primer reke Save. Vodoprivreda, 46, 29-48.
Стричевић, Љ. (2015). Водни ресурси Расинског округа и њихов утицај на регионални развој. Докторска дисертација.Департман за географију ПМФ-а, Универзитет у Нишу.
Sun, S., Barraud, S., Castebrunet, H., Aubin, J.B & Marmonier P. (2016). Long – term trend evolution of the temperature of the groundwater upstream and downstream a stormwater infiltration basin. Conference Novatech
Yazid, M. & Humphries, U. (2015). Regional observed trends in daily rainfall indices of extremes over the Indochina Peninsula from 1960 to 2007. Climate, 3, 168-192.
Yue, S. & Wang, C. (2004). The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water resources management, 18, 201-218.
Zelenakova, M., Purcz, P., Solakova, T. & Demeterova B. (2012). Analysis of trends of low flow in river stations in Eastern Slovakia. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunesis 60(5), 265-274.
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.